Reaction to final TV debate

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The last TV debate took place last night and initially our analysis will focus on the major themes that come through online comments. This analysis was conducted on the BBC HYS online forum, and we will extend our analysis to other online data in the coming days.

The analysis for Nick Clegg is shown below.



The analysis for David Cameron is shown below.



The analysis for Gordon Brown is shown below.



It is interesting to note that there are more words in context with Gordon Brown, implying that there is more discussion on his performance in last night's debate. It is also interesting to note that the words associated with David Cameron are largely negative.

It can also be seen that the main policy points of each of the party leaders comes through the analysis, with key words for Nick Clegg being: immigration, amnesty, immigrants; for David Cameron: tax, inheritance, economy, rich; and Gordon Brown: economy, tax, housing, benefits, banks.

The word 'won' can be seen in the analysis for all three party leaders, showing that the public opinion is now beginning to polarise, with an increasing number of people having already made up their mind as to who they think won the debate and who they will likely vote for.

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Reaction to Brown's gaffe

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Following Brown's gaffe caught on microphone by Sky TV yesterday, the internet has been awash with comments on the implication for Gordon Brown and the Labour party.

We have conducted analysis on over 2,000 comments published on line at the BBC Have Your Say discussion forum specifically on this topic.

The first question to ask is will this alter the voter's mind, so that they will vote for a different party? The figure below shows the words that are in context with the word 'vote', and show that the word 'other' is very close in context. This would imply that voters are indeed thinking of changing their mind and voting for another party. Some consolation for Labour however is that the word 'still' is also close in context, implying that this gaffe will not affect all voters.



If we extend this analysis to the Labour party as a whole and examine what words are in context, we see a similar story.

As expected, we see immigration a top word in context with Labour, as well as the word 'bigot'. A number of worrying trends for Labour come through this analysis with words like 'ruined', 'competency', 'integrity' and 'resign' coming through in context with the Labour party.

Here we can see that the main themes are negative against Labour and if this instant reaction holds until the election then this single incident can be expected to have a large impact on the voting intentions of the public.

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Nick Clegg contextual word scores

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The previous post looked to analyse what words were in context with Nick Clegg in a graphical manner. This analysis will take this one step further and show the actual scores for each word against Nick Clegg in our analysis, over the two TV debates and for the BBC Have Your Say discussion forum data and also the Telegraph online comments.

The first table below shows the analysis for the BBC Have your say data after the first TV debate. This mirrors the analysis seen previously with the word 'won' and 'well' appearing at the top of the list with high scores. The scores drop off fairly quickly however, indicating that the other words found have a low contextual score with Nick Clegg.

well	120
came	110
debate	87
had	80
won	72
did	70
very	66
other	64
has	60
think	54
will	48
would	44
good	38
top	34
night	34
two	32
people	28
party	22
can	20
lose	20
vote	20
get	18
far	18
three	16
thought	16

The analysis for the Telegraph data shows a similar story:

won	22
debate	20
other	14
talks	8
then	8
political	8
reform	8
easy	8
candidates	8
talk	8
choice	8
tory	8
candidate	8
walk	8
incumbent	8
relatively	8
expose	8
outmaneuver	8
mere	8
road	8
blocks	8
refuses	8

This time the word 'won' is the first in the list, with a high score, and the majority of other words dropping off quickly.

The analysis for the data after the second TV debate is slightly different. Here the words that are most commonly in context with Nick Clegg are fairly neutral, indicating that there is no strong theme emerging, and the remaining words although a mixture of positive and negative concepts all have a relatively low context score.

debate	44
last	36
thought	30
would	28
were	19
week	17
other	14
did	13
make	12
issues	12
audience	12
sky	12
very	10
common	10
constantly	9
leaders	9
notice	9
camera	9
passion	9
spoke	9
serious	9
bias	9

This is repeated for the Telegraph data shown below:

debate	38
stronger	18
came	18
people	16
bad	16
mind	16
prime	16
seeing	16
tonight	16
watch	16
stage	16
action	16
minister	16
2nd	16
caring	16
smiled	16
figure	16
weblink	16
amazingly	16

Here it can be seen that the scores are all relatively low and also that there are not many words coming through the analysis. This is due to the fact that the focus of comments on the Telegraph site in particular were on David Cameron and not Nick Clegg.

Trends can be seen to develop even in these two rather limited data sets. The word 'won' is at the top of both the BBC and Telegraph lists after the first debate with a score of 0.14 and 0.27 respectively. After the second debate this score drops to 0.03 on the BBC forum and does not even appear in the Telegraph data (effectively a score of 0).

As we collect more data we will be able to track and assess more emerging trends in public opinion.

We will continue this analysis and with more data feeds in the coming days and for the other party leaders.

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Context analysis of Nick Clegg over two debates

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Our previous analysis has shown a selection of the words that have been found in context. For this analysis, we are showing figures that show the words closest in context to Nick Clegg for both the BBC Have Your Say data and the blogs from the Daily Telegraph.

A comparison between the two debates can be made and the differences between them easily spotted by eye.

It should be noted that the closer to the centre the word is, the closer in context the word is to 'Nick Clegg'. By contrast, words that appear on the edge of the circle of words are not close in context to 'Nick Clegg'. You may also spot the same word appearing more than once in the same figure - this is due to that particular word appearing in multiple contexts (i.e. in multiple discussion threads).

First off, let's look at the analysis for the BBC Have your say data from the 1st debate (click on figure to enlarge):



The analysis shows how the words 'won' and 'well' are very close to the centre, as are 'Gordon' and 'David' - unsurprising given the subject matter being analysed. This re-affirms the earlier analysis showing that the comments reflected Nick Clegg's good performance in this first debate.



The data from the Daily Telegraph also shows a similar story, with 'won' appearing close to the centre.

The picture changes after the second debate however, as can be seen in the figure below which is for data from the BBC Have your say discussion forum.



This time the word 'won' does appear but is much further away from the centre (it is in the bottom left of the circle of data). The remaining words are a mixture of positive and negative words that reflect the increased scrutiny that he is now being placed under by the electorate.

Finally let's look at the data from the Daily Telegraph.



Here the analysis shows a similar story - the strong positive words after the first debate have all but disappeared.


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Change in public perception of Nick Clegg

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After the first TV debate, the initial discussions centred on the fact that Nick Clegg to everyone’s surprise had won the debate. This can be seen by examining the words that were close in context to Nick Clegg in both the BBC Have Your Say forum and also comments made on the Telegraph’s website immediately following the debate.

BBC HYS: well, won, think, good, top, lose, best, agree, interesting, articulate, complimenting

The Telegraph: won, reform, easy, candidate, choice, incumbent, outmanoeuvre, power

As can be seen in the two lists above, the words are very strong and powerful, and reflect perhaps the surprise in the public at Nick Clegg’s performance. The lists are also ordered in terms of the importance of these words to Nick Clegg, so that the words that are closer in context are at the front of the list. It is clear to see here that in both websites the public has Nick Clegg as the winner, with the word "won" at the front of both lists.

This changed in the second TV debate. Nick Clegg was no longer a surprise package and this was reflected in the words found in context in the comments made (again the words are ordered so that the words closer in context to Nick Clegg are at the front of the list):

BBC HYS: issues, audience, common, constantly, notice, camera, passion, serious, slowly, trick, distract, shifting, intensity, won, better, immigration, good

The Telegraph: stronger, bad, prime, minister, stage, 2nd, caring, amazingly

Here we can see that Nick Clegg is not considered to be the clear winner; in fact the word ‘won’ or similar does not appear in context in the comments on the Telegraph website at all, unlike the first set of data, and on the BBC website comes some way down the list. Here we can see how the public is responding to Nick Clegg differently, showing that their surprise at his performance in the 1st TV debate has now been replaced with more scrutiny of his performance and of his policies.

Indeed many of the words that are in context from the BBC website data seem to relate to Clegg’s interaction with the audience and camera. There are only two words that are not related to this which are "issues" and "immigration".

In the Telegraph data we see that the consensus is that Nick Clegg finished 2nd (presumably behind Cameron), with a focus on the fact that depending on the result Nick Clegg could end up being Prime Minister. Again there is a lack of discussion on any policies.

It is expected that there will be a further change in the coming days, and in particular following the third tv debate on Thursday 29th April. We will revisit this analysis in the coming days to reflect the changing public opinion and in particular to analyse the words closest in context to Nick Clegg and the other leaders.

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Telegraph commentators - Clegg outmanoeuvred Cameron

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The data used for this analysis was taken from user comments from the Telegraph website on blogs published immediately after the two sets of TV debates.

Analysis published previously analysed over 3750 comments on the BBC’s Have YourSay after the two tv debates showed Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown doing well. As we are providing an impartial opinion trends service and that our technology can analyse a vast amount of data very quickly, we are expanding the newsites forums we analyse.

So we analysed a more right wing news site - The Telegraph - and the results from the comments made by users after the first TV Debate came back showing that Clegg was the winner. Surely there was some error in the analysis, a conservative supporting paper having readers favouring Clegg?

So for due diligence we reviewed all the comments, and we found the analysis to accurately reflect the opinions within the forum. The majority of views expressed was that Clegg won the debate, whether they will vote for him or not.

For the next piece of analysis, we focussed on the data from the Telegraph site, and split the data into two separate sets, one after the 1st TV debate, and another after the 2nd TV debate. In this way we can look to examine any changes in public opinion on the Telegraph site over the two debates.

Our analysis examines what words are in context to the three party leaders, to see what conversations have been had on them, and what in particular the public have been discussing. The words below show the issues that come through closest in context and highlight the issues that are dominating this particular election campaign.

Key concepts arising from the comments in the Telegraph data from the 1st TV debate include:

David Cameron: hereditary, lords, peers, unreported, future

Gordon Brown: economy, immigration,

Nick Clegg: better, tax, UKIP, choice, outmaneurve, reform, won

Notably, UKIP appears in context with Nick Clegg. This appears a bit of a conundrum, but further analysis showed that as the consensus was that he was the better performer, some traditional Tory supporters expressed their displeasure with Cameron and instead were floating towards UKIP.

Could Cameron win back traditional Tory supporters with the 2nd TV debate? Our analysis showed that commentators on the Telegraph website after the 2nd debate did find Cameron performed better.

Key concepts arising from the comments from the 2nd TV debate include:

Common to all: alliance, referendum, unstuck

David Cameron: atlantic, Republicans, businesslike

It is worth emphasising that this analysis does not attempt to apply sentiment to the context. So this could mean positive or negative perception on this topic in the eyes of the public. This piece of analysis does not look to determine this, but instead focuses on what concepts in general are close to the various leaders.

This analysis demonstrates how the words used by the public immediately after the debate can be analysed using a quantitative analysis of the public's opinion based on what they actually say.

We will continue this analysis over the coming days, by analysing online discussions on the three leaders, and therefore show how trends are forming in the days running up to the election.

Election Trends answers ongoing questions of the publics popularity towards political parties and their leaders, the public perception of the character of the party leaders, and public confidence in the political parties. Election Trends presents ongoing daily election updates on existing topics, with special feature topics.

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Word context analysis for three party leaders

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The data used for this analysis was taken from the BBCs Have Your Say discussion forum after the 2nd TV debate.

In this piece of analysis, we are examining what words are in context to the 3 party leaders, to see what conversations have been had on them, and what in particular the public have been discussing. The words below show the issues that come through closest in context and highlight the issues that are dominating this particular election campaign.

For example, Nick Clegg is close in context to hung parliament, with evidently much discussion on the fact that a vote for the Liberal Democrats is likely to lead to a hung parliament. However the words in context to David Cameron and Gordon Brown are more linked to policy issues, with pensions being a strong theme for David Cameron, and a number of issues being close for Gordon Brown. The policy areas for Gordon Brown range over a number of issues such as economic (‘businesses’ and ‘costly’), political (‘devolution’), and foreign affairs (‘war’). It was also noticeable that both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown were close in context to immigration.

It is worth emphasising that this analysis does not attempt to apply sentiment to the context. So it could be that although Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown are close in context to immigration, one of them has a positive perception on this topic in the eyes of the public, and the other a negative one. This piece of analysis does not look to determine this, but instead focuses on what concepts in general are close to the various leaders. However it can be seen that both Nick Clegg and David Cameron are linked to the word ‘better’ which has a positive sentiment.

David Cameron - better, good, pensioners, pensions, sense.

Nick Clegg - better, country, hung, right, Parliament, immigration.

Gordon Brown = businesses, cabinet, costly, devolution, honest, lumbered, questions, SNP, war, immigration.

This analysis demonstrates how the words used by the public immediately after the debate can be analysed using a quantitative analysis of the public's opinion based on what they actually say.

We will continue this analysis over the coming days, by analysing online discussions on the three leaders, and therefore show how trends are forming in the days running up to the election.

Election Trends answers ongoing questions of the publics popularity towards political parties and their leaders, the public perception of the character of the party leaders, and public confidence in the political parties. Election Trends presents ongoing daily election updates on existing topics, with special feature topics.

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