Monday, 20 December 2010

why philtaylor didn't come 1st spoty ? our analysis shows why http://ping.fm/rREbz

Sunday, 19 December 2010

winner of spoty predicted from tweets http://ping.fm/Cfsyt
1st prediction for spoty using tweets during today. Updates in about an hour for tweets during show http://ping.fm/Mw65z
Prediction of spoty based on tweets in past week, update during show http://ping.fm/7GThg
scd, kara clinches victory at final show stage, as our analysis demonstrates and we answer why http://ping.fm/FR1hU

Saturday, 18 December 2010

scd 1st 2nd places tweets analysed by 'boffin' matt best individual but kara and artem most popular couple http://ping.fm/P1y3C
scd Strictly come dancing 1st 2nd 3rd places based on all tweets tonight revealed by 'boffin' http://ping.fm/y636F
After strictly come dancing performances order of final 3 prediction changed http://ping.fm/mEJ39
Brand-Aura.com 'boffin' featured in evening express making entertainment predictions for Strictly & BBC SPOTY http://tinyurl.com/3yu43l9

Wednesday, 15 December 2010

Brand Aura founder wins global Technical Innovation award for increased health and safety for mine workers http://tinyurl.com/2uogntv

Sunday, 12 December 2010

our world class social media analysis tool, got xfactor final prediction spot on http://tinyurl.com/32ewqth
hurray!! our contextual analysis got the final 2 on xfactor right. http://tinyurl.com/32ewqth sorry bookies you lost, we were accurate :)
xfactor winner results in!! http://tinyurl.com/32ewqth find out if rebeccaferguson or mattcardle or onedirection .based on tweets

Monday, 6 December 2010

Positive & negative contextual analysis of tweets response on xfactor elimination of Mary & Cher saved http://ping.fm/0hmuL

Tuesday, 23 November 2010

social media analysis, case study xfactor, whats been said about cher and rebecca in context http://ping.fm/GtRmY

Monday, 15 November 2010

http://ping.fm/RFGTp is recruiting mkg/PR/business agencies & professionals to be sales agents for world leading social media analysis
launched website http://ping.fm/2QcmA demonstrating our analysis with case studies in politics, pop culture, food and drink, tourism, oil and gas.

Monday, 8 November 2010

accurate prediction of xfactor votes by analysing tweets in context, now insight into the contestant they love to hate. http://ping.fm/KIc4c trends, comparisions, sentiment for your brands

Tuesday, 24 August 2010

Brand Aura launches affordable Social Media Analysis

If you want social media analysis carried out similar to the election trends analysis, whether political or another topic. Please view our affordable prices for Twitter and Social Media packages on http://www.brand-aura.com/products.html

Please get in touch with jayne@brand-aura.com if you'd like further details.

Brand-Aura launches http://www.brand-aura.com// and is featured in leading Web Magazine Semantic Web

Emiore digital data analysis business service and website: http://www.emiore.co.uk/

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More about Election Trends http://electiontrends.blogspot.com/2010/04/election-trends-launches.html

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Sunday, 13 June 2010

BP 210,000 tweets analysed, emerging contextual trends over a week


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Contextual trend analysis of BP

We have analysed twitter responses about BP in context over a week period, 06.06.10 to 12.06.10. We shall carry out further contextual trend analysis on this topic over the coming days.

Source: 210,000 twitter comments.


BP & Obama

In twitter comments mentioning BP, Obama was mentioned most regularly in the following context:

06.06.10 – spoken, hasn’t, directly, captured, being.
07.06.10
– spoken, hasn’t, president, doesn’t, administration, boot, neck, American.
08.06.10 – lashes, media, chief, afp, barack, fire, crisis.
09.06.10 – downplays, number, attack, enemy, public, osama, guardian, fears.
10.06.10 Day 3 – chairman, week, meet, invites, administration, update, Washington, allen.
11.06.10 – Britain, bullying, stop, demonising, says, cantor, eric, news.
12.06.10 – promise, ready, president, suspend, executives, retain, cash, mee (Massey Energy Co.)

The individual words build a story of Obama's reaction to the BP disaster.

BP & Cost

In twitter comments mentioning BP, cost was mentioned most regularly in the following tweet context:

07.06.10 – billion, far, captures, reach, cleanup, same, current.
08.06.10 – florida, report, 195, jobs, real, flow, billions.
09.06.10 – pressure, political, default, company, soar, swaps, back, then.
10.06.10 – jobs, billion, 195, dollars, workers, fla, dollars, workers, 189.
11.06.10 - cost, real, estate, billion, coud, values, property, homeowners, clean.
12.06.10 - began, shares, almost, value, halved, people, mcartney, derek.


Over time, different costs emerge giving a wider picture of the far reaching negative effects of the BP disaster.

BP & Ocean

In twitter comments mentioning BP, ocean was mentioned most regularly in tweets containing these words:


06.06.10 – wants, fake, twitter, mocking, shut, ruining, account, nice.
07.06.10 – new, black, tumblr, blue, usual, replacing, fire, rig.
08.06.10 – shut, account, ruining, response, thats, company, ryanvaughan, acct.
09.06.10 – wants, fake, mocking, account, shut, ruining, company, want.
10.06.10 – million, campaign, spending, cleaning, agree, boycotting, too, aral.
11.06.10 – let,destroy, products, list, cannot, global, break, repercussions.
12.06.10 – let, destroy, list, won, products, destroying, cannot, break.


It appears in a backlash to BPs damage to the Ocean, there is an ongoing attempt to ruin BPs image with a infamous fake BP twitter account and list of products to boycott.

BP in context

The most common words surrounding BP continually over the week period are: spill, oil, news, Mexico, leak, gulf, disaster. The other top words surrounding BP in tweets are:

06.06.10 – well, broken, captures, cap, containment, capturing, far, working, increasing, Won, chief, quit, florida, protest, dozens, reuters, news, yahoo.

07.06.10 – news, google, buys, search, words, real, keep, people, yahoo, coast, clean, guard, take, years, drilling, May, impacting, 120.

08.06.10 – google, buys, top, result, has, sponsored, links, purchased, appear, mashable, search, yahoo, terms, words, news, people, real, keep, engine, phrases, folks.

09.06.10 – leak, plans, clean, stop, hours, solid, contingency, complete, mexico, are, govt, doing, truth, leaders, speaks, citizen, spill—the, sharing, music, owes, damaging.

10.06.10 – Costner, day, water, million, Kevin, machines, gallons, sells, recycle, patent, technology, ignored, been, abt, remarks, making, snarky, barrels, new, gulf.

11.06.10 – are, doing, govt, leaders, truth, speaks, citizen, spill—the, could, video, cats, Nsfw, /via, kim, deals, coffee, know, needs, plug.

12.06.10 – obama, barack, nick, clegg, doing, are, truth, speaks, govt, citizen, spill—the, leaders, failures, fighting, can, gusher, made, worse, woes.

The above words show that new stories and trends in context with BP are emerging daily.

If you'd like more detail on the BP topic, or another topic analysed in context please let us know.
The Twitter search application can only go far back as approximately two weeks and due to the twitter API it may not contain all tweets made on this subject.

We can analyse blogs, forums, and twitter comments seperately or combine all comments to demonstrate a wider picture on a topic across all these digital sources.

Please get in touch with jayne@emiore.co.uk if you'd like further details.


Emiore recently launched our digital data analysis business service and website: http://www.emiore.co.uk/

Follow election trends on twitter
http://twitter.com/electiontrends
More about Election Trends
http://electiontrends.blogspot.com/2010/04/election-trends-launches.html

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Tuesday, 1 June 2010

BP 44000+ twitter posts analysed

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Contextual analysis of BP

We have contexutally analysed twitter responses about BP over a week period.

Source: 44,385 twitter comments 35,627 of them being unique tweets (not retweets).

Please click on the data cloud to view fully. The words closest to the centre are those repeated the most in context to the BP topic.

BP Topic - 'Oil' context cloud


BP's oil is discussed in context with strongly negative words such as 'ruining, kill, failure', relating to the devastating impact on the sea environment and the failure of attempts to curtail the damage. Other key word close in context are 'shares' and 'Obama' which are analysed in their own context of twitter discussions below.

BP Topic - 'Shares' context cloud


There are many negative tweets about BPs share price, including words 'decline' and 'suffered'. The environment is damaged, and it appears BPs public image and share price is following suit.


BP Topic - 'Obama' context cloud
Obama has been mentioned in close context to BP, and related words include: 'distancing' as Obama perhaps tries to distance his connection to this negative event. There is 'response' and 'remarks', as the public looks to Obama to help push a solution when he 'meets' BP.

Top 20 BP related retweets

Retweets number count and details

267 RT @ebertchicago: CEO of BP: "I want my life back." Millions of Gulf life forms: "Hey, Tony, we can identify with that!"
232 RT @bonniegillespie: BP wants Twitter to shut down a fake account mocking the oil company. Twitter wants BP to shut down the oil leak that s ruining the ocean.
153 Citizen Speaks The Truth ON BP Gulf Oil Spill the Govt, BP Are Doing Nothing, There Are No Leaders Here http://bit.ly/BP Gulf Oil Spill
111 RT @raincitypastor: BP wants Twitter to shut down a fake BP account mocking the oil company. Twitter wants BP to shut down the oil leak that's ruining the ocean
97 RT @BreakingNews: BP says cost of responding to Gulf oil spill is now just under $1 billion http://bit.ly/aCj1FS
87 RT @thepeak: BP wants Twitter to shut down a fake account mocking the oil company. Twitter wants BP to shut down the oil leak that s ruining the ocean.
86 RT @BreakingNews: BP's shares plunge, knocking off $17 billion of market value as investors panic over failed bid to stop Gulf leak http://bit.ly/ax4Jya
86 RT @CNNMoney: BP shares plummet around the world http://bit.ly/9n29Hl
83 Oil Spill Firefox Plugin Blacks Out BP Across the Web: Creative agency Jess3 has developed a Firefox plugin that ... http://bit.ly/aDhQQ0
76 RT @RichardMetzger: BP kills Aquaman http://bit.ly/bQ24MM
75 RT @whitehouse: Obama speaks on BP Oil Spill after meeting with Commission Co chairs, starting momentarily http://wh.gov/live
72 RT @mashable: Oil Spill Firefox Plugin Blacks Out BP Across the Web
http://bit.ly/bW85nj 65 RT @peoplesrev: And one more thing Fuck BP British Petro for their ugly Mess boycott their gas stations those birds covered in oil MESS
62 RT @Alyssa Milano: Obama meets with BP Oil Spill Commission Co Chairs, to give remarks afterwards at 12:15 (via @whitehouse)
59 RT @BPGlobalPR: Due to public outcry, our "Spill Or Be Spilled" flash game will be taken off our BP Kidz Klub website. "Smack the Greasy Manatee" stays.
54 Citizens of the Earth, Stand Up to #BP, Let's Break BP and Help Heal Earth by Boycotting all BP Products. http://bit.ly/Gulf Oil Spill
54 RT @pourmecoffee: Sad. BP Spillcam is going to be on TV longer than Conan hosted Tonight Show.
53 #BOYCOTT #BP here's the BP product list http://bit.ly/Gulf Oil Spill
50 RT @BreakingNews: Coast Guard says it could take as many as 3 days before oil can be siphoned to surface in BP's latest attempt to contain Gulf leak
50 #Gulf #Oil #Spill, Citizens of the Earth: Boycott BP! Here's a list of products you need to stop buying http://bit.ly/Gulf Oil Spill
50 RT @whitehouse: On tap: Obama meets with BP Oil Spill Commission Co Chairs, give remarks afterwards at 12:15

In the top 10 there are
a few sources that have been retweeted 430 times on the Twitter V BP shut down, creating more publicity of this fake site. Other satirical retweets are popular in spreading the message about this serious subject. Popular retweets also include those about the share price, and Obama's reaction.

If you'd like more detail on the BP topic, or another topic analysed in context please let us know. The Twitter search application can only go far back as approximately two weeks and due to the twitter API it may not contain all tweets made on this subject.

We can analyse blogs, forums, and twitter comments seperately or combine all comments to demonstrate a wider picture on a topic across all these digital sources.

Please get in touch with jayne@emiore.co.uk if you'd like further details.

Emiore recently launched our digital data analysis business service and website: http://www.emiore.co.uk/

Follow election trends on twitter
http://twitter.com/electiontrends
More about Election Trends
http://electiontrends.blogspot.com/2010/04/election-trends-launches.html

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http://www.blue-flow.com/


David Law resignation over 11700 tweets analysed

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We have analysed twitter responses since the announcement of the David Laws resignation.

Contextual analysis of David Law's resignation


Source: 11,788 twitter comments 8,971 of them being unique tweets (not retweets).
Please click on the data cloud to view fully. The words closest to the centre are those repeated the most in context to Laws.


Top retweets numbers and tweet details

161 RT @iaindale: I'm told David Laws has just resigned.
76 RT @davidschneider: The really sad thing about David Laws is that under the new government he'll no longer be able to stay at a B'n'B
66 RT @davidschneider: David Laws. Why hide who you cohabit with? If you want a loving, consensual relationship with the Tories, that's fine.
66 RT @skynewsbreak: David Laws, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has resigned with immediate effect after revelations over his expenses.
62 RT @tom watson: Via @epolitix Whatever your view of David Laws, Tony Grew's article is the day's must read: http://bit.ly/aXPslU
58 RT @krishgm: Listening to all the pious tributes to David Laws one wonders quite how Britain ever managed without him....
43 RT @LloydieJL: David Laws saved us money and tried to keep a private life. I admire him greatly. #ISupportLaws
42 RT @BreakingNews: British Treasury official David Laws resigns after admitting he used taxpayer money to pay rent to his partner http://bit.ly/brPZOw
40 RT @SallyBercow: What is George Osborne gonna do without "I'll let David explain the details" Laws? Hope he's got Economics 4 Dummies....
35 RT @krishgm: the rules seem clear on David Laws just because a partner is secret (gay or straight) doesn't exempt them

If you'd like more detail on David Law's topic, or another topic analysed in context please let us know. The Twitter search application can only go far back as approximately two weeks and due to the twitter API it may not contain all tweets made on this subject.

We can analyse blogs, forums, and twitter comments seperately or combine all comments to demonstrate a wider picture on a topic across all these digital sources.

Please get in touch if you'd like further details.

Follow election trends on twitter http://twitter.com/electiontrends
More about Election Trends http://electiontrends.blogspot.com/2010/04/election-trends-launches.html

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Emiore recently launched our digital data analysis business service and website: http://www.emiore.co.uk/

Contacts us: email jayne@emiore.co.uk

Monday, 31 May 2010

Twitter response to the U.K Budget cuts

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We have analysed twitter responses since the announcement of the UK budget cuts.

Contextual analysis of U.K Budget cuts

Source: 1502 twitter comments 1310 of them being unique tweets (not retweets).

Please click on the data cloud to view fully.

This contexutal analysis shows the reaction to be centred around the olympic games. Further analysis of the olympics topic in context shows words 'ringfencing, positive, influential' and 'axe, fall, furious' demonstrating a polorisation of opinion on how the olympics could be affected.

The arts was topical in close context to budget, further context analysis reveals discussions about museums, festivals, film, and theatres with negative words connected such as 'fears, hit, falls, trim, pinch, mean'. A wholly more negative view of being affected compared to the olympics. The arts subject was the one most retweeted.

Suprisingly although the alert web community is prevalent on twitter, there was very few tweets about the U.K semantic web cuts.

If you'd like another topic and certain words analysed in context please let us know. The Twitter search application can only go far back as approximately two weeks and due to the twitter API it may not contain all tweets made on this subject.

We can analyse blogs, forums, and twitter comments seperately or combine all comments to demonstrate a wider picture on a topic across all these digital sources.

Please get in touch if you'd like further details.

Follow election trends on twitter http://twitter.com/electiontrends
More about Election Trends http://electiontrends.blogspot.com/2010/04/election-trends-launches.html

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Emiore recently launched our digital data analysis business service and website: http://www.emiore.co.uk/

Contacts us: email jayne@emiore.co.uk

Monday, 17 May 2010

ElectionTrends analysis featured in U.S Semantic Web Magazine

What makes Election Trends analysis unique?
There are a plethora of fledgling sentiment and brand analysis companies, however they are all inadequate in many ways – an independent review of the main players can be seen in a leading article online.
Emiore delivering Election Trends utilises world superior technology which is the most appropriate tool for in depth business analysis. Technology is provided by BlueFlow Ltd, a spinout from the University of Aberdeen.

Emiore is a new company, however that has not prevented our analysis of the UK elections from being showcased in one of the top online Semantic Analysis magazines, demonstrating that we are using world beating cutting edge technologies.

Emiore process stages
1. Emiore identifies sources and gathers data. Research is tailored, however can include:
a) Where your company and related brands are being talked about.
b) Competitors and related products and services in the field
c) Relevant target market and associated lifestyle
d) Related industry content

2. Our automatic analysis of data filters out the irrelevant content, understands conversations, and discovers relevant content. New functionality can be added, but analysis already includes:

a) Contextual (context of discussion in relation to key words) http://tinyurl.com/2wcgppw
b) Contextual comparison, example http://tinyurl.com/2v9un5c
c) Positive sentiment (attitude, opinion) example: http://tinyurl.com/39t3vu7
d) Negative sentiment, comparison and trending, example: http://tinyurl.com/3yjq8nw

3. Report: we summarise the analysis, to give you an understanding of topics specified in stage 1. The ‘virtual currency’ of relevant opinion will help you create the right marketing strategy to identify, engage and retain your customers. Our analysis gives you timely information to help focus business development, identify new opportunities, market your products, and manage your reputation.

Interested? If you would like to discuss how Emiore can identify market trends, undertake competitor analysis, and spot new market opportunities using the vast amount of data available online, then please contact:

Jayne Coulthard, CEO Emiore Ltd
T: +44 (0)7971919546
E: jayne@emiore.co.uk

Tuesday, 11 May 2010

Analysis of Daily Mail reaction to Brown's departure



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Following on from the previous post which examined the immediate responses to Gordon Brown's resignation from the Guardian website (a left leaning publication), we have analysed the reaction from the Daily Mail (which is a more right leaning publication).

The analysis shows that the initial reaction is one of pleasure that he has resigned - the word 'riddance' can be seen in close context along with words such as 'bye', 'bankrupter', 'damage' and 'debt'.



As with the previous analysis, the overwhelming sentiment is negative, although we will look to track how this perception changes (if at all) in the coming days as the public comes to terms with the change and assesses Brown's legacy after leaving office.

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Instant reaction to Brown's departure



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With a Conservative led coalition government already underway and Gordon Brown releasing his final interview as Prime Minister within the last 2 hours, we thought it would be interesting to look at the instant reaction to his departure.

To begin with, we'll take a look at reaction on the Guardian online website with nearly 2,000 comments being made on the topic of him leaving office.

The analysis can be seen below, with a number of words being found in context with Gordon Brown, with positive words and negative words being found.



Some negative words can be seen such as 'Robert Mugabe', 'disgrace', 'ignoring', 'gerrymander', 'squatter', 'blew' and 'cling'.

However some positive words can also be seen, such as 'dignity', 'upholding' and 'great'. It is clear to see that the mood is generally negative, although we will track this over the coming days and see if this changes once the dust begins to settle.

It is noticeable that there is a lack of comment on the right wing press, such as The Telegraph, with very few comments being made by the public.

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Contextual analysis of "Who should the Lib Dems work with?"



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With a decision by the Liberal Democrats on who they will agree to form a coalition government with due today, we have analysed over 1,000 comments on the question "Who should the lib dems work with".

The analysis showed the words that are in context with the word "lib" - i.e. when people discuss the Liberal Democrats what themes emerge, and what is closest in context?

The analysis showed clearly that the overwhelming majority of people are discussing a Conservative - Liberal Democrat government, with Labour far behind (coming through as "lab" in this analysis).

This would seem to indicate that the majority of the people commenting on the BBC believe that the Conservative - Liberal Democrat coalition is the only viable option. However our previous analysis has shown that this is not without its risks for Nick Clegg and the Liberals.

We will continue this analysis in the coming days once the decision by the Liberals has been made.


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Saturday, 8 May 2010

Do the public want a Conservative/Liberal alliance?



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Following the election results which have resulted in a balanced or hung parliament (depending on your point of view, presumably) there has been much discussion on the possible outcomes for the various parties, in particular with the announcements of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in discussions together about forming an alliance.

We have continued our analysis in the run up to the election by analysing over 4,500 comments on the BBC Have your say discussion forum where the topic of discussion is focussed on what happens next following the results.

To begin with, let us examine what words are appearing in context with the word 'government'. We see unsurprisingly the words 'coalition', 'minority' coming through very strongly but we also see 'Conservatives' and 'lib' 'dems' also strongly in context with the word 'government'. The word 'Labour' is conspicuous by its absence, implying that the electorate does not associate the incumbent party with governing the country. However the fact that Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are associated closely with the word government shows that the public are discussing these two parties in relation to them forming the new government.



Let us now look to see how the respective party leaders fare with a similar analysis. If we begin with David Cameron, we see that the same theme predominates. Nick Clegg comes through closely in context with David Cameron, along with the words 'form' and 'minority'. We also see words like 'deal', 'work', 'agreement', 'coalition' and 'reform'. This would show that the electorate are again discussing how the Conservative party can form a government on the back of an alliance with the Liberal Democrats.



We can follow this analysis up with the same for Nick Clegg. Here we see 'reform' coming through extremely strongly, which implies that the public expect Nick Clegg to bring about reform (probably in the voting system) as the price for any alliance with either party. We again see the Conservative party coming through strongly with Labour again conspicuous by its absence. Some interesting words coming through include 'referendum', probably for any changes to the voting system, and 'suicide' implying that the expected deal between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats is not without its risks for Nick Clegg. It is also interesting to note that Gordon Brown does in fact come through in context, although not as strongly as David Cameron.



Finally, let us examine the reaction to Gordon Brown. In contrast to the other two leaders, we see some strongly negative words coming through, such as 'resign', 'lost', 'mess', 'wrong' and 'unelected'. It is also interesting to note that Nick Clegg is shown in extremely close context to Gordon Brown but this is not the case the other way around. This shows that the only option open to Gordon Brown is the deal with the Liberal Democrats. However Nick Clegg has both options open.



As things change in the coming days we will analyse further online content as and when it appears.

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Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Electorate undecided? Analysis of latest BBC online discussion



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With the election literally hours away, pollsters are feverishly trying to predict how the election will turn out. Although the predicted vote has remained relatively steady for the past week with the Conservatives holding a healthy lead that should be enough to see them the leading party if not with an outright majority, there is concern that the polls are not reflecting the opinion of the large numbers of undecided voters in this campaign.

A widely quoted figure today has been that 4 in 10 voters are still undecided as to who they will vote for, and the BBC have a discussion forum on the Have Your Say website on this topic. Over 1,700 comments have been made and we present the analysis that we have undertaken on this data. In the figures, the closer to the centre a word is, then the closer that word is in context to what is being analysed. To explain it another way, words in the centre of the figures are close in context, those further away on the edge of the figure are not as close in context.

To begin with, let's examine the voters opinion towards Gordon Brown. Are they keen to see him removed from office? The figure below shows the contextual analysis of words that are found in context with Gordon Brown on the BBC discussion forum. Worryingly for Gordon Brown, we see the word 'worst' in close context with him along with other words like 'hate', 'last', 'bye' and 'poor'. This would seem to reflect opinion that people have decided that they have had enough of him as Prime Minister.



If we extend this analysis to the Labour party, we would expect to see a similar picture. However, although the word 'out' is close in context we see that there are not as many negative words. Therefore although people feel strongly negative about Gordon Brown, it is possible that this does not extend to the Labour party as a whole, and it is perhaps no coincidence that we then see the Liberal Democrats coming through close in context with Labour as people see them as an alternative vote if they do not like Gordon Brown.

We also see words such as 'tactically' and 'tactical' coming through suggesting that as expected a proportion of the electorate will be not necessarily voting for who they want, but who they do not want in power.



Moving on to David Cameron, we again see alot of negative comments, which is rather surprising given his lead in the polls. This perhaps reflects a more left-leaning demographic of the BBC website and is not representative of the electorate as a whole. For example we see the word 'evil' in close context and other strongly negative words such as 'danger', 'bad', 'nasty' and 'worst'. However there are also a number of positive words such as 'future', 'won' and 'win'.



Finally, let's look at the Liberal Democrats. Here we see the Conservative party in close context, perhaps alluding to the tactical nature of voting that may take place in a number of seats as noted earlier. Words such as 'change' and 'seats' come through strongly, with the concept of hung parliament also being evident in the data.



This analysis would seem to indicate that the Conservative win is not as clear cut as the polls suggest, although this may be due to the underlying demographic of the individuals who post on this particular site.

It will certainly be interesting to see the final result of the election and analyse the aftermath as whatever the result it will be sure to generate alot of interest and comment from individuals and pundits alike.

We will continue this analysis after the election has taken place, to report on the emerging themes that come out through online discussions, and how the public have responded to the final decision that came through their voting - whether tactical or not.

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Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Arsenal football fan views: contextual analysis



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Following on the previous blog post, which analysed data from a Liverpool forum, we are now focusing on a data from a couple of Arsenal forums, where a different underlying social demographic can be seen. This can be seen by referring to the online poll that is shown at one of the sites here, and which shows Labour very much in last place, in contrast to the poll results on the Liverpool web site which can be seen here.

To allow the two sites to be compared, we will repeat the exact same analysis as previously. To start off, let's look at the contextual analysis of the Labour party. Here we can see a mixture of positive and negative words, with tax and debt being major themes coming through. We also see words such as 'worst', 'worse', 'regulation', 'alternative' and 'mess' coming through in context with Labour.



When we turn to the Conservatives, we see a number of positive words coming through like 'deserve', 'chance', 'better' and 'alternative'. Certainly the overall trend is much more positive for them in comparison to Labour.



If we turn to the Liberal Democrats, we see the word 'friendly' close in context which is a strange word for a political party and not necessarily a good word to have in context. Another interesting theme to come through are the words 'football' and 'fan' with 'reform'. This is likely to be due to the policies of the Liberal Democrats who are behind proposals to allow standing sections in football stadia, which many football fans would like to see.



We will continue this type of analysis in the next few days in the run up to the elections.

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Football fans: views on political parties



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To follow the analysis conducted yesteday on MumsNet, we are going to analyse the views of football fans by visiting some of the more popular teams, who have discussion forums with a large number of comments on the election.

To start off, we are analysing the views of Liverpool football fans from a popular Liverpool fansite Red and White Kop. The culture of this football club (like many) is socialist and therefore we can expect a bias towards Labour from the traditional supporters of this football club.

To begin with then let's look at the views of Labour and what words are in context to Labour in the online comments. The figure below shows the words that are found in context with Labour. The closer the word is to the centre (i.e. the closer to the word Labour) then the closer the word is in context.



It is interesting to note that there are not many positive words coming through this analysis. The closest words in context are the other parties which means that discussions of Labour are also bringing in mention of the other parties. There is discussion of a hung parliament plus negative words such as 'bad', 'years'. There are also positive words such as 'win' and 'majority' but the discussion here is largely neutral.

The analysis of Liberal Democrats is shown in the figure below. Again the concept of hung parliament comes through strongly, as does 'win' and other positive words such as 'support', 'genuine', 'alternative', 'agree', 'authoritative', and 'knowledgeable'. In general the words found in context with the Liberal Democrats are positive with not many negative words or concepts coming through strongly.

This is in contrast to the Conservatives, where we see a number of strongly negative words coming through, as can be seen in the figure below. This is to be expected given the demographic of the website.



We will continue this analysis by looking at the views of football fans from other demographics and examine the difference in opinion and popularity for the parties and the leaders that we find.





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Monday, 3 May 2010

MumsNet comments: contextual analysis



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For this piece of analysis, we will focus on data taken from MumsNet.com, a website especially for parents, put together by parents. The demographic of the users is overwhelmingly female.

They have also been running their own polls, which you can view here.

The first piece of analysis focuses on Nick Clegg, who according to the poll is the overwhelming favourite from this site. As you would expect, the word 'best' can be found close in context to Nick Clegg, with Cameron also coming close. Other interesting words coming through in context with Nick Clegg are 'well', 'good', 'won' and 'interesting'.



We can follow this analysis up with the same contextual analysis on David Cameron. Here we see a number of rather negative words such as 'nervous', 'second', 'insincere', 'disdain', 'pants', 'slimy'. However there are a number of surprisingly positive words such as 'shag' and 'marry', which are perhaps out of place in a political debate.



Finally, we can look at the analysis of Gordon Brown. We also see the word 'second' coming through in context with Brown, as well as a number of positive words such as 'relaxed', 'winning', 'surprisingly', 'agree', 'strong'. There are negative words in there too, such as 'rebuttals', 'preached', 'bums', 'terrible' and 'tied'. We also see 'Blair' coming through in context with Gordon Brown - whether this is positive or negative will depend on how Blair is perceived in the electorate these days.



We will continue this analysis in the days running up to the election.

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Sunday, 2 May 2010

Daily Telegraph policy areas against political party



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Previous analysis looked at the comments made on the BBC's Have your say discussion forums. For this piece of analysis we will instead use all of the comments made on blog posts on the Daily Telegraph website in the month of April. The analysis of the previous two blog postings will be repeated, so we will show what policy areas are close in context firstly to the party leaders, and then to the political parties themselves. This blog post will focus on the political parties.

As before it is important to note that the scores are normalised to allow a comparison between parties to be made more easily. Also the sentiment analysis of each of the policy areas here is not shown, but simply shows what policy areas are discussed in context with the leader/party.

For the analysis shown here, the chart below shows the three parties and the respective score in each policy area.

Telegraph comments in context with party

Again it is noticeable that the Liberal Democrats do not score very well in most of the categories, implying that there is not much discussion of their policies in these areas. This is a real problem for them since to be taken seriously as an alternative party what they stand for on the whole range of policy issues needs to be communicated effectively to the electorate.

We will be continuing this analysis by analysing blog and online comments from other data sources in the coming days.

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Daily Telegraph policy areas of importance - leaders



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Previous analysis looked at the comments made on the BBC's Have your say discussion forums. For this piece of analysis we will instead use all of the comments made on blog posts on the Daily Telegraph website in the month of April. The analysis of the previous two blog postings will be repeated, so we will show what policy areas are close in context firstly to the party leaders, and then to the political parties themselves. This blog post will focus on the party leaders.

As before it is important to note that the scores are normalised to allow a comparison between leaders to be make more easily. Also the sentiment analysis of each of the policy areas here is not shown, but simply shows what policy areas are discussed in context with the leader/party.

The chart below shows the analysis from the Daily Telegraph where we see that immigration and Europe are discussed much more frequently than in the data from the BBC.

The analysis of Gordon Brown is shown below, where again immigration is a top issue. In contrast with David Cameron however, the economy comes through as a strong policy area.

Finally for the three leaders, let's look at Nick Clegg. It is noticeable that Nick Clegg does not have as many categories as the other two leaders, and again immigration is a strong issue. This probably reflects the importance of the issue to the readers of the Daily Telegraph more than the party leaders themselves.

We can compare the leaders against each other with reference to the chart below. It is interesting to note the areas where each leader has most comments. Notice again that this does not mean that they are good or bad comments - the sentiment analysis of the comments made is not the focus of this particular report.

Telegraph comments in context with leaders



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Saturday, 1 May 2010

Policy area importance vs political party



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In the previous blog post we examined how close in context each party leader was to the various policy themes in the election. This time we have repeated the analysis but instead focused on the political parties themselves (and therefore not exclusively on the party leaders).

As before, this data came from every single comment from every single discussion topic made on the BBC Have your say discussion forum in the month of April.

To begin with, let's look at the analysis for the Liberal Democrats. In the chart below you can see the analysis undertaken which shows a slightly different picture to that of Nick Clegg. As you can see, immigration is now no longer the top discussion topic for the Liberals, and perhaps shows the influence of their widely respected Shadow Chancellor Vince Cable, as we see the topic of taxation being the number one discussed topic for the Liberals.

Liberal democrats

The chart shows that immigration is still an important issue, with equality and Europe also coming through strongly.

Now let's look at the Conservatives. Again similar to David Cameron we see the economy at the number one issue with defence also coming through very strongly. Unlike David Cameron however, we can see that there are fewer conversations relating to topics like education, health and corruption. Again it is worth emphasising that this analysis does not show the underlying sentiment for this topics, simply that these areas have been a focus for discussion for the electorate.

Conservatives

Finally, let's examine the scores for the Labour party. Here the analysis again shows a majority focus on the economy and taxation. It is worth noting that it is possible that the other areas such as health and education could have been discussed just as often as the Conservatives but that the number of discussions on the economy in context with Labour have reduced their relative importance for these figures.

Labour

This analysis begs the question for the Labour party, is their message being buried beneath the focus on the economy? Are their other policy areas being sufficiently communicated to the public, or is the focus on the economy instead reflecting the mood of the electorate, and what they are mostly concerned or angry about?

For the Liberals, it also begs the question - is the focus on Nick Clegg diluting the policy messages of their party? Or is this to be expected given that this is the first time for some time that a third party is being seriously considered by the media? Perhaps they should be comforted by the fact that their policies are being discussed and broadly speaking are at similar levels to the other parties - this may indicate that they are indeed being taken seriously by the electorate.

For Labour, is it a worry that there is quite so much focus on the economy? Is this a strength or a weakness for them? As often with these types of questions, it is probably a bit of both - but if the electorate holds them to blame for the economic woes the country has been experiencing then this may explain the inability of Brown to shift the opinion polls in his favour.

We will look to examine this in more detail in the coming days in the run up to the election.

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Policy area importance vs party leader



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The previous analysis showed where the public had concentrated their comments when discussing on the BBC Have your say discussion forums for the month of April. We decided to take this analysis further, and look at how the policy areas relate against each party leader. As before, this data came from every single comment from every single discussion topic made on the BBC Have your say discussion forum in the month of April.

This analysis was conducted by comparing the policy areas in context against the party leaders, to see the distribution of conversations for each leader in the various policy areas. The score is normalised for each party leader to make the comparison of the relative importance for each leader easier.

First of all, let's look at the analysis of Gordon Brown. As expected, the economy and tax head the agenda and also the comments that have been written online. The only surprise may be in the fact that health and schools come out so low in comparison.

Gordon Brown

The next analysis we will look at is David Cameron. This analysis shows in some respect a much more healthy overview of discussion against policy area, with the scores not being dominated by the economy and taxation. The chart shows that there is a equal spread of discussion over a range of topics. However, this may simply reflect the fact that there has been so much discussion on the economy with Gordon Brown, for obvious reasons.

David Cameron

The final phase of analysis is to look at Nick Clegg. Here we see that in contrast to the other two party leaders, immigration comes out as the top issue. This perhaps reflects the attacks on liberal democrat policy that were made recently by both the Conservatives and the Tories, and on the basis of this analysis show that this has resulted in more comments on this issue in context with Nick Clegg than any other issue.

Nick Clegg

It can also be seen that there are fewer policy areas that gather scores for Nick Clegg when compared with the other parties. This is likely to be due to the fact that as the third party in the election, and a somewhat surprise package to many people, the discussions on Nick Clegg have not focussed exclusively on policy areas, but rather on personal qualities.

It should be noted that these charts do not show sentiment analysis regarding these policy areas - therefore although it is clear that Gordon Brown has an overwhelming majority of comments relating to the economy, this does not mean that they are either mostly positive, or mostly negative. This analysis simply shows the areas that have been discussed.

The next blog will examine how the parties profile looks, particularly when we compare this against the party leaders.

We will continue this analysis and any changes that occur in public opinion in the coming days in the run up to the election.

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Importance of policy areas to electorate



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Our new analysis focusses on the importance of policy areas to the electorate. For this analysis we have downloaded and analysed every comment made on every separate discussion thread on the BBC Have your say discussion forums for the month of April. We have then created a score based on the contextual analysis of the various policy areas to see which areas have been discussed the most.

Notice that this analysis is therefore not unbiased, since the public are not free to create new discussion threads. However the threads that discuss the television debates are more wide ranging and give the opportunity for the public to discuss any areas that they feel were not covered elsewhere.

It is unsurprising, when reviewing the results, to see tax and the economy at the top of the public's priorities. Europe and business follow closely behind which are obviously also linked to the current economic climate.

The next issues to come through are education and schools, which are obviously the same topic.

Rather surprisingly, given the amount of attention it has received during this election campaign, immigration does not score so highly, perhaps suggesting that the electorate are not impressed by the squabbles between the party leaders on this topic and that the economy and the future job prospects for most people concern them more.

Corruption also scores quite low, which is again surprising given the earlier scandal around MPs expenses. However this perhaps shows that the electorate has moved past this issue and are more interested in the difference that the politicians can make for them, and that this particular topic is not going to dominate the election as some had previously feared.

We will continue this analysis in the coming days to examine whether there is a shift in public opinion in these areas.


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Friday, 30 April 2010

Reaction to final TV debate

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The last TV debate took place last night and initially our analysis will focus on the major themes that come through online comments. This analysis was conducted on the BBC HYS online forum, and we will extend our analysis to other online data in the coming days.

The analysis for Nick Clegg is shown below.



The analysis for David Cameron is shown below.



The analysis for Gordon Brown is shown below.



It is interesting to note that there are more words in context with Gordon Brown, implying that there is more discussion on his performance in last night's debate. It is also interesting to note that the words associated with David Cameron are largely negative.

It can also be seen that the main policy points of each of the party leaders comes through the analysis, with key words for Nick Clegg being: immigration, amnesty, immigrants; for David Cameron: tax, inheritance, economy, rich; and Gordon Brown: economy, tax, housing, benefits, banks.

The word 'won' can be seen in the analysis for all three party leaders, showing that the public opinion is now beginning to polarise, with an increasing number of people having already made up their mind as to who they think won the debate and who they will likely vote for.

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Thursday, 29 April 2010

Reaction to Brown's gaffe

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Following Brown's gaffe caught on microphone by Sky TV yesterday, the internet has been awash with comments on the implication for Gordon Brown and the Labour party.

We have conducted analysis on over 2,000 comments published on line at the BBC Have Your Say discussion forum specifically on this topic.

The first question to ask is will this alter the voter's mind, so that they will vote for a different party? The figure below shows the words that are in context with the word 'vote', and show that the word 'other' is very close in context. This would imply that voters are indeed thinking of changing their mind and voting for another party. Some consolation for Labour however is that the word 'still' is also close in context, implying that this gaffe will not affect all voters.



If we extend this analysis to the Labour party as a whole and examine what words are in context, we see a similar story.

As expected, we see immigration a top word in context with Labour, as well as the word 'bigot'. A number of worrying trends for Labour come through this analysis with words like 'ruined', 'competency', 'integrity' and 'resign' coming through in context with the Labour party.

Here we can see that the main themes are negative against Labour and if this instant reaction holds until the election then this single incident can be expected to have a large impact on the voting intentions of the public.

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Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Nick Clegg contextual word scores

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The previous post looked to analyse what words were in context with Nick Clegg in a graphical manner. This analysis will take this one step further and show the actual scores for each word against Nick Clegg in our analysis, over the two TV debates and for the BBC Have Your Say discussion forum data and also the Telegraph online comments.

The first table below shows the analysis for the BBC Have your say data after the first TV debate. This mirrors the analysis seen previously with the word 'won' and 'well' appearing at the top of the list with high scores. The scores drop off fairly quickly however, indicating that the other words found have a low contextual score with Nick Clegg.

well120
came110
debate 87
had 80
won 72
did 70
very 66
other 64
has 60
think 54
will 48
would 44
good 38
top 34
night 34
two 32
people 28
party 22
can 20
lose 20
vote 20
get 18
far 18
three 16
thought 16

The analysis for the Telegraph data shows a similar story:

won 22
debate 20
other 14
talks 8
then 8
political 8
reform 8
easy 8
candidates 8
talk 8
choice 8
tory 8
candidate 8
walk 8
incumbent 8
relatively 8
expose 8
outmaneuver 8
mere 8
road 8
blocks 8
refuses 8

This time the word 'won' is the first in the list, with a high score, and the majority of other words dropping off quickly.

The analysis for the data after the second TV debate is slightly different. Here the words that are most commonly in context with Nick Clegg are fairly neutral, indicating that there is no strong theme emerging, and the remaining words although a mixture of positive and negative concepts all have a relatively low context score.

debate 44
last 36
thought 30
would 28
were 19
week 17
other 14
did 13
make 12
issues 12
audience 12
sky 12
very 10
common 10
constantly 9
leaders 9
notice 9
camera 9
passion 9
spoke 9
serious 9
bias 9

This is repeated for the Telegraph data shown below:

debate 38
stronger 18
came 18
people 16
bad 16
mind 16
prime 16
seeing 16
tonight 16
watch 16
stage 16
action 16
minister 16
2nd 16
caring 16
smiled 16
figure 16
weblink 16
amazingly 16

Here it can be seen that the scores are all relatively low and also that there are not many words coming through the analysis. This is due to the fact that the focus of comments on the Telegraph site in particular were on David Cameron and not Nick Clegg.

Trends can be seen to develop even in these two rather limited data sets. The word 'won' is at the top of both the BBC and Telegraph lists after the first debate with a score of 0.14 and 0.27 respectively. After the second debate this score drops to 0.03 on the BBC forum and does not even appear in the Telegraph data (effectively a score of 0).

As we collect more data we will be able to track and assess more emerging trends in public opinion.

We will continue this analysis and with more data feeds in the coming days and for the other party leaders.

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