Wednesday 28 April 2010

Nick Clegg contextual word scores

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The previous post looked to analyse what words were in context with Nick Clegg in a graphical manner. This analysis will take this one step further and show the actual scores for each word against Nick Clegg in our analysis, over the two TV debates and for the BBC Have Your Say discussion forum data and also the Telegraph online comments.

The first table below shows the analysis for the BBC Have your say data after the first TV debate. This mirrors the analysis seen previously with the word 'won' and 'well' appearing at the top of the list with high scores. The scores drop off fairly quickly however, indicating that the other words found have a low contextual score with Nick Clegg.

well120
came110
debate 87
had 80
won 72
did 70
very 66
other 64
has 60
think 54
will 48
would 44
good 38
top 34
night 34
two 32
people 28
party 22
can 20
lose 20
vote 20
get 18
far 18
three 16
thought 16

The analysis for the Telegraph data shows a similar story:

won 22
debate 20
other 14
talks 8
then 8
political 8
reform 8
easy 8
candidates 8
talk 8
choice 8
tory 8
candidate 8
walk 8
incumbent 8
relatively 8
expose 8
outmaneuver 8
mere 8
road 8
blocks 8
refuses 8

This time the word 'won' is the first in the list, with a high score, and the majority of other words dropping off quickly.

The analysis for the data after the second TV debate is slightly different. Here the words that are most commonly in context with Nick Clegg are fairly neutral, indicating that there is no strong theme emerging, and the remaining words although a mixture of positive and negative concepts all have a relatively low context score.

debate 44
last 36
thought 30
would 28
were 19
week 17
other 14
did 13
make 12
issues 12
audience 12
sky 12
very 10
common 10
constantly 9
leaders 9
notice 9
camera 9
passion 9
spoke 9
serious 9
bias 9

This is repeated for the Telegraph data shown below:

debate 38
stronger 18
came 18
people 16
bad 16
mind 16
prime 16
seeing 16
tonight 16
watch 16
stage 16
action 16
minister 16
2nd 16
caring 16
smiled 16
figure 16
weblink 16
amazingly 16

Here it can be seen that the scores are all relatively low and also that there are not many words coming through the analysis. This is due to the fact that the focus of comments on the Telegraph site in particular were on David Cameron and not Nick Clegg.

Trends can be seen to develop even in these two rather limited data sets. The word 'won' is at the top of both the BBC and Telegraph lists after the first debate with a score of 0.14 and 0.27 respectively. After the second debate this score drops to 0.03 on the BBC forum and does not even appear in the Telegraph data (effectively a score of 0).

As we collect more data we will be able to track and assess more emerging trends in public opinion.

We will continue this analysis and with more data feeds in the coming days and for the other party leaders.

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